Market intelligence

The post-purchase loss landscape

Returns fraud, chargeback trends, and market data — curated for enterprise teams and investors evaluating the space.

Executive summary

U.S. retailers lose over $743 billion annually to merchandise returns. Approximately 13.7% of those returns are fraudulent or abusive — a $101 billion problem that is growing year-over-year.

Chargebacks are projected to exceed $165 billion globally by 2028, with first-party (friendly) fraud accounting for 60–75% of all disputes. Merchants bear the majority of costs.

Enterprise retailers that invest in structured evidence collection, automated case management, and AI-assisted fraud detection are seeing measurably higher dispute win rates and lower operational cost per case.

Key market numbers

$743B

U.S. retail returns (annual)

NRF & Appriss Retail

Updated: December 2024

$101B

Estimated return fraud & abuse

Appriss Retail

Updated: December 2024

$165B

Global chargebacks projected by 2028

Mastercard

Updated: November 2024

30%

Average e-commerce return rate

Pitney Bowes

Updated: February 2025

Research library

Curated sources and takeaways

Primary research and industry reports relevant to post-purchase operations, return fraud, and chargeback management.

Consumer Returns in the Retail Industry

NRF & Appriss Retail · 2024

Total U.S. merchandise returns reached $743B
Fraudulent returns account for ~13.7% of all returns
Return fraud rate increased year-over-year

Global Chargeback Landscape Report

Mastercard · 2024

Chargebacks projected to exceed $165B globally by 2028
Friendly fraud is the leading chargeback category
Merchants absorb 60–80% of dispute costs

Friendly Fraud Statistics & Trends

Chargebacks911 · 2025

First-party fraud accounts for 60–75% of all chargebacks
Average chargeback costs merchants $190 per incident
Compelling evidence significantly improves win rates

Organized Retail Crime Survey

NRF · 2024

ORC losses reached $112B in the U.S.
Return fraud used as a key monetization channel
Gift card and receipt manipulation are top methods

Global E-Commerce Forecast

eMarketer · 2025

Global e-commerce projected to surpass $7T by 2026
Return volumes scale with online order growth
Automation demand increasing proportionally

Post-Purchase Fraud Impact Report

Deloitte · 2024

Retailers lose 2–3% of revenue to post-purchase fraud
Combined return abuse + chargebacks create material margin impact
Mid-market and enterprise retailers most affected

Omnichannel Returns & Fraud Vectors

RILA · 2024

BORIS creates policy gaps exploited by serial returners
In-store and online systems often lack integration
Unified return data reduces fraud exposure

AI in Fraud Detection Market Report

MarketsandMarkets · 2024

AI fraud detection market to reach $15B by 2029
Retail and financial services lead adoption
Image verification and pattern detection are key use cases

Annual Shipping & Returns Index

Pitney Bowes · 2025

Online return rates climb to 30% of orders
Apparel and electronics have the highest return rates
Return shipping costs continue to rise for merchants

Visa & Mastercard Dispute Rule Updates

Payments Dive · 2025

New compelling evidence requirements for 2025
Structured evidence packs improve dispute outcomes
Image documentation increasingly important

Latest updates

Updated daily

NRF reports U.S. retail returns reached $743B in 2024

The National Retail Federation's annual report confirms that total merchandise returns in the U.S. continued to climb, reaching $743 billion.

NRF · 2025-01-16

Return fraud costs retailers an estimated $101B annually

Fraudulent and abusive returns now account for roughly 13.7% of all returned merchandise, with wardrobing, receipt fraud, and empty-box scams leading categories.

Appriss Retail · 2025-01-16

Chargebacks projected to exceed $165B globally by 2028

Friendly fraud and first-party misuse continue to drive chargeback volumes, with merchants bearing the majority of dispute costs.

Mastercard · 2024-11-05

E-commerce return rates climb to 30% of online orders

Online return rates continue to outpace brick-and-mortar, with apparel and electronics seeing the highest percentages.

Pitney Bowes · 2025-02-20

Retailers tighten return policies as abuse escalates

Major retailers including Amazon, Target, and Walmart have introduced stricter return windows and restocking fees in response to rising abuse rates.

Wall Street Journal · 2025-03-01

Buy-online-return-in-store creates new fraud vectors

BORIS and omnichannel returns are creating policy gaps that serial returners exploit, especially where in-store and online systems are not integrated.

RILA · 2024-09-18

AI-assisted fraud detection market to reach $15B by 2029

Enterprise adoption of AI for fraud prevention is accelerating, with retail and financial services leading investment.

MarketsandMarkets · 2024-12-10

First-party fraud now accounts for 60–75% of all chargebacks

Industry data confirms that friendly fraud — where legitimate cardholders dispute valid transactions — remains the dominant chargeback category.

Chargebacks911 · 2025-01-08

Organized retail crime losses reach $112B in the U.S.

ORC groups increasingly use return fraud as a monetization channel, with gift card and receipt manipulation identified as top methods.

NRF · 2024-10-22

Global e-commerce to surpass $7T by 2026

Continued e-commerce growth means return volumes and dispute complexity will scale proportionally, increasing demand for automation.

eMarketer · 2025-02-12

Visa and Mastercard update dispute rules for 2025

New compelling evidence requirements from card networks make structured evidence packs and image documentation more important for merchants.

Payments Dive · 2025-01-30

Retailers lose 2–3% of revenue to post-purchase fraud annually

Combined losses from return abuse, chargebacks, and refund fraud represent a material margin impact for mid-market and enterprise retailers.

Deloitte · 2024-08-14

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